Organizations are bombarded by change, and many are struggling to keep up. Eight out of ten CEOs see significant change ahead. The gap between expected change and the ability to manage it has almost tripled since 2006. Back in 2006 I gave a speech about change and the rate of change and how that was going to affect business application development. What follows are excerpts from that speech that talks about change.
I would like to wish a very happy birthday to Lucy Johnson. Lucy was born in, 1901. She is celebrating her 105th birthday today. How many of you know Lucy? Quite frankly, I don’t either, but I do want to talk about some of the things that Lucy has seen during her life time. In 1903, if she were in Kitty hawk, NC she would have seen Orville and Wilber Wright make the first powered flight. If someone would have said to her, I need to get to the airport to catch an 11 o’clock flight to Chicago she would have thought you to be crazy.
If she were in Dearborn, MI in 1903, she would have witnessed the first Model T’s coming out of Henry Ford’s new factory with this thing called an assembly line. It would have been quite a feat to hop in “the machine” and drive from Cincinnati to Dayton, Ohio.
In 1913 the current Federal Reserve System was established and in the same year the current income tax system was established. (Personally I don’t think 1913 was a very good year). In the 1920’s, Air Conditioning and refrigerators became popular. In the 1930’s, talking movies became widespread. In the 1940’s, we entered the atomic age and the first electronic computers came about. There is more computing power in a talking greeting card today, than existed in the world in 1945. In the 1950’s, we entered the space age. In the 1960’s, we landed men on the moon and returned them safely to earth.
The list could go on and on. Some experts claim that Lucy has seen more change in her 105 year life span, than was seen in all of human history up to that point. Think about that for a minute. There has been more change in the last 100 years than there has been for the thousands of years before that.
In the 15th century, for example, it is said that the faculty at Merton College, Oxford, were cautious about stocking their library with books because they were not convinced printing was here to stay. They were wrong.
In the 18th century, economists hailed the Machine Age as the ultimate in technology. They were wrong.
In 1950, Tom Watson, Sr. of IBM predicted that seven computers would serve all the nation's computing needs. He was wrong.
If we look back at the years that STAR BASE Inc. has been in existence, it seems like some things have changed a great deal and others really have not changed much. In 1991 most companies were running DOS on their PCs, which were 66mhz 486 PCs. Most companies did not have internet access, let alone Google. Most companies did not have any email. We have seen the rise and fall of OS/2 and JAVA was something you drank.
Some things have not changed. In 1991, George Bush was in the white house and we were fighting a war in Iraq. On September 17th, 1991, Linus Torvalds, released Linux to several Usenet newsgroups. Pretty Good Privacy is introduced. Pretty Good Privacy, or PGP, is an e-mail encryption program.
What is really exciting it to look ahead at the next 15 years. Moore’s Law says that computing power will double every two years. In 2006, IBM researchers announced that they had developed a technique to print circuitry only 29.9 nm wide using deep-ultraviolet (DUV, 193-nanometer) optical lithography. IBM claims that this technique may allow chipmakers to use current methods for several years while continuing to achieve results predicted by Moore's Law.
So what? You may ask. This allows for smaller faster devices to do things that we haven’t even thought of yet. Some experts have predicted that we will see more change in the next 15 years than Lucy Johnson has seen in her life time. Remember, some believe Lucy saw more change in her life time than what had happened in all of human history up to her birth.
Most of us in IT business solutions are going to be around for another 15 years, so we are going to see a tremendous amount of change.
As you can see things are always changing and they are going to continue to change at an exponential rate. Technology is going to continue to evolve. Some say the Cincinnati and Dayton areas will end up as one large metropolis.
There is one thing that constant among all the change and that’s people. We all have to learn and adapt to our environments. At STAR BASE, I think we have a very good process for hiring people. It’s not an easy process to go through. Not only do we objectively test for skills, we also ask questions that reveal something about the individual. One of the questions we ask as part of the interview process is: What’s the best piece of advice you were ever given? (Think About that). There is more to hiring for IT Jobs than make sure the person has the right acronyms on the list. The more things change the more the stay the same.